Expansion projects.
Expansion bids remain eligible but face the lowest award rate. The evidence threshold for basic need is high; without local-authority pupil-projection data the bid is unlikely to score on Project Need.
Compiled by Oliver Wakefield-Smith, founder, Digital Signet. Reviewed against ESFA Information for Applicants 2026-27 and the Condition Funding Methodology March 2026 revision.
Are expansion projects still eligible
Yes, in 2026-27. The category is unchanged. ESFA prioritises building safety and compliance above expansion within Project Need, which structurally lowers the award rate.
Mandatory evidence of demand
Published PAN data, the local authority basic-need plan, and the DfE National Pupil Projections. A demand bid without external-authority confirmation does not pass Project Need.
Where expansion sits in scoring
Expansion is assessed on the same 60/25/15 weighting but typically scores 1-2 points lower on Project Need than an equivalent building-safety bid. The Project Cost and Project Planning scores are unchanged in shape.
Why expansion bids underperform
Many expansion bids are submitted on growth aspiration rather than basic need. ESFA assessors discount aspiration; only published basic-need shortfalls score.